16/04/2021. (USA) Jon White’s Apple Blossom Picks and Derby Top 10: Swiss Skydiver vs Monomoy Girl in the Saturday’s Grade I, $1 million Apple Blossom Handicap at Oaklawn Park

It’s understandable that much attention at this time of the year is focused on the upcoming Kentucky Derby on May 1. That being said, many racing enthusiasts are looking forward to the showdown between champions Monomoy Girl and Swiss Skydiver in this Saturday’s Grade I, $1 million Apple Blossom Handicap at Oaklawn Park.

These are the two highest-ranking distaffers in the land. Monomoy Girl is No. 3 (behind only 4-year-old colts Mystic Guide and Charlatan) in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll. Swiss Skydiver ranks No. 4.

The Apple Blossom has attracted a field of six. Monomoy Girl was assigned top weight of 124 pounds, two more than Swiss Skydiver.

The remainder of the field consists of Letruska (118 pounds), Getridofwhatailesu (117), Another Broad (115) and Chance to Shine (114).

Monomoy Girl is a two-time Eclipse Award winner. She was voted champion 3-year-old filly in 2018 and champion older dirt female in 2020. Swiss Skydiver was voted a 2020 Eclipse Award as champion 3-year-old filly.

Trained by Brad Cox, Monomoy Girl has finished first in 15 of 16 career starts. However, she was disqualified and placed second for causing interference in the Grade I Cotillion at Parx Racing in 2018.

Kenny McPeek trains Swiss Skydiver, who has won six of her last nine, highlighted by a neck victory in last year’s Grade I Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course. Kentucky Derby winner Authentic finished second in the Preakness. Authentic concluded his 3-year-old campaign and racing career with a Breeders’ Cup Classic triumph en route being elected 2020 Horse of the Year. Authentic also was voted a 2020 Eclipse Award as champion 3-year-old male.

I ranked Swiss Skydiver’s Preakness triumph as the best performance by a Thoroughbred in the United States last year.

My selections for the Apple Blossom are below:

1. Swiss Skydiver
2. Monomoy Girl
3. Letruska
4. Getridofwhatailesu

Yes, it’s true that Monomoy Girl defeated Swiss Skydiver the only time they have met. They faced each other in the Grade I BC Distaff last Nov. 7 at Keeneland. Monomoy Girl won by 1 3/4 lengths as an even-money favorite. Swiss Skydiver, sent away at 2-1, finished seventh, 8 1/4 lengths behind Monomoy Girl.

But as far as Swiss Skydiver’s defeat in the BC Distaff is concerned, I am drawing a line through it. Swiss Skydiver, ridden by Robby Albarado, stumbled at the start. Immediately after the race, Albarado downplayed the fact that Swiss Skydiver did not have the best of starts.

“It maybe cost her a length or two position-wise, but it didn’t cost us the win,” Albarado said.

But it turned out that Swiss Skydiver emerged from the race with an injured heel. It’s possible that might have negatively affected her performance. Four days after the Breeders’ Cup, McPeek tweeted that the filly had injured her heel much worse than originally thought. McPeek went on to write in his tweet that Swiss Skydiver “will rebound in 2021.”

Swiss Skydiver did indeed rebound from her 2020 BC Distaff defeat in her very first 2021 start by winning Santa Anita’s Grade I Beholder Mile by 2 3/4 lengths.

I was so impressed by Swiss Skydiver’s Beholder Mile victory that I’m thinking she has an excellent chance to turn the tables on Monomoy Girl in the Apple Blossom.

Among the other reasons that I’m making Swiss Skydiver my top pick in the Apple Blossom is she:

–Almost certainly will be a better price than Monomoy Girl.

–Has the best last-race Beyer Speed Figure, a 101, compared to 96 for Monomoy Girl.

–Sports the best lifetime Beyer in the field, a 105, while Monomoy has the second-best figure of a 104.

–Owns a better top Oaklawn figure, a 99, than Monomoy Girl’s 96 Beyer in that category.

–Does get to carry two pounds less than Monomoy Girl despite Swiss Skydiver’s superiority to Monomoy Girl in multiple Beyer Speed Figure categories.